Monday, May 23, 2011

Leadoff Rankings: Week 8


Previous Rankings: Week 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7

The eighth weekend of the 2011 season has come and gone, and we're changing up the way we do our rankings. For the first time, our Leadoff Rankings have been determined not by my all-knowing power, but by the use of a formula. Similar to what we did on Thursday with our Rotation Rankings, we set all the statistics relative to league average, and then weighted each statistic to mean more or less than others (OBP means more than slugging percentage, for example). This gives us an overall average of 1.000, with lower scores correlating to above-average performance. More a fan of pitching? Check out our Rotation Rankings, published every Thursday, where we rank each team by the performance of their starting pitchers. The rankings are based on season performance (90%), with a small bias towards recent performance. The stats come from each team's first and second batters every game, regardless of the name on the back of the jersey. To see how things turned out this week, hit the jump!

(LW: Last week's ranking; ABs: At-Bats, AVG: batting average; OBP: on-base percentage; SLG: slugging percentage; R: runs; RBI: runs batted in; WS: Weighted Score)

30. (LW: 30) Washington Nationals (19-21, t-4th NL East)--WS: 1.255
This Week: 2-4, .216 AVG, .245 OBP, .333 SLG, 1 steal, 5 runs, 2 RBIs
Season (379 ABs): .201 AVG, .256 OBP, .309 SLG, 18 steals, 36 R, 30 RBIs
The Nationals are finally hitting over .200, hallelujah! Creeping ever closer to leaving the basement of these rankings, the pair of Roger Bernadina and Ian Desmond actually had nine hits in a series against Baltimore, though they didn't walk in that series despite 29 at-bats.

29. (LW: 25) Detroit Tigers (22-18, 2nd AL Central)--WS: 1.241
This Week: 1-5, .174 AVG, .240 OBP, .217 SLG, 1 steal, 1 run, 0 RBIs
Season (360 ABs): .222 AVG, .296 OBP, .317 SLG, 7 steals, 40 R, 27 RBIs
This has got to be arguably the worst week for any leadoff crew for any team this season. The Tigers' leadoff line was .174/.240/.217 with no RBIs and only one run scored. Even worse, they have 80 hits and on 98 strikeouts on the season. Wow.

28. (LW: 18) Tampa Bay Rays (23-17, 1st AL East)--WS: 1.180
This Week: 3-4, .113 AVG, .190 OBP, .189 SLG, 0 steals, 2 runs, 5 RBIs
Season (375 ABs): .227 AVG, .287 OBP, .357 SLG, 15 steals, 45 R, 42 RBIs
Back on April 28th, Sam Fuld was hitting .333/.400/.500, but it's been pretty much downhill since. The speedy leftfielder is down to just .229/.279/.349, and the Rays haven't had an above-.230 batting average in a week since April 18th-24th--that's far too long to get no production from those slots.

27. (LW: 27) Baltimore Orioles (19-20, 5th AL East)--WS: 1.157
This Week: 2-4, .228 AVG, .254 OBP, .281 SLG, 3 steals, 5 runs, 3 RBIs
Season (378 ABs): .230 AVG, .281 OBP, .325 SLG, 10 steals, 40 R, 36 RBIs
For most of the season, the pair of Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis had been holding the Orioles back offensively. This week, a rotating cast of Felix Pie, Adam Jones, and Robert Andino managed to fit that bill just fine, due to a lovely 11-to-2 strikeout/walk ratio and a lack of extra-base hits as well. The way the top three teams in that division are playing, the Orioles are pretty much screwed from this point out.

26. (LW: 29) Florida Marlins (23-16, 2nd NL East)--WS: 1.145
This Week: 3-3, .189 AVG, .218 OBP, .321 SLG, 2 steals, 7 runs, 2 RBIs
Season (374 ABs): .225 AVG, .286 OBP, .334 SLG, 6 steals, 42 R, 33 RBIs
The best pitching division in the National League is the worst-hitting, with two teams finding themselves in the bottom five of our Leadoff Rankings. The Marlins' top two, mostly Chris Coghlan and Hanley Ramirez, had all 10 of their hits in the middle four games of this week (in 35 at-bats), but went 0-for-18 in the other two games of the week.

25. (LW: 21) Seattle Mariners (16-23, 4th AL West)--WS: 1.139
This Week: 6-1, .179 AVG, .233 OBP, .214 SLG, 0 steals, 4 runs, 2 RBIs
Season (381 ABs): .249 AVG, .301 OBP, .307 SLG, 20 steals, 42 R, 32 RBIs
Ichiro and Chone Figgins hit only .179 this week a the top of the Mariners order, but the team managed to go 6-1. The leadoff duo slugged just .214 with four runs scored, a troubling sign given that this was their third consecutive down week. If the top of the order doesn't get going for Seattle, they won't be able to have many more six-win weeks.

24. (LW: 28) Minnesota Twins (12-26, 5th AL Central)--WS: 1.137
This Week: 3-4, .211 AVG, .286 OBP, .281 SLG, 0 steals, 8 runs, 8 RBIs
Season (361 ABs): .235 AVG, .303 OBP, .302 SLG, 5 steals, 44 R, 27 RBIs
The Twins leadoff men hit only .211 for the week, but that wasn't actually that much worse than usual--they were hitting only .240 coming into the week. Denard Span & Co. have only five steals on the season with a.302 slugging percentage. That's why they have only 44 runs scored and 27 RBIs in an American League lineup--not so great.

23. (LW: 26) Oakland Athletics (20-20, 3rd AL West)--WS: 1.119
This Week: 2-5, .262 AVG, .308 OBP, .328 SLG, 3 steals, 3 runs, 6 RBIs
Season (374 ABs): .230 AVG, .303 OBP, .334 SLG, 15 steals, 44 R, 28 RBIs
Coco Crisp & Co. only scored three runs in a 2-5 week for the Athletics. Their performance was middle-of-the-road, but they just couldn't get across the plate--a huge problem for the top of the order.

22. (LW: 22) San Diego Padres (17-23, 5th NL West)--WS: 1.083
This Week: 2-5, .273 AVG, .322 OBP, .327 SLG, 2 steals, 5 runs, 3 RBIs
Season (372 ABs): .250 AVG, .314 OBP, .315 SLG, 22 steals, 39 R, 21 RBI
That's right, this is three straight weeks of above-average hitting from the San Diego Padres, even though they managed to find a way not to move up this week (due to a slight formula change). The season numbers still aren't quite there, especially that awful slugging percentage, but at least the Padres are showing some form of life--.312/.350/.422 over their last 15 games, to be exact.

21. (LW: 20) Kansas City Royals (20-19, 3rd AL Central)--WS: 1.082
This Week: 2-5, .232 AVG, .295 OBP, .321 SLG, 1 steal, 2 runs, 5 RBIs
Season (388 ABs): .237 AVG, .292 OBP, .379 SLG, 18 steals, 47 R, 49 RBIs
In another down week for the Royals leadoff men, the first two batters in the KC order scored just two runs in seven games while hitting .232. Melky Cabrera hit .261 in the #2 hole, but the rest of the leadoff guys had only seven hits and one run scored. After a hot April, Alex Gordon is hitting only .176 in the leadoff spot, significantly hurting the Royals' run-scoring ability.

20. (LW: 7) Atlanta Braves (23-19, 3rd NL East)--WS: 1.057
This Week: 3-4, .190 AVG, .254 OBP, .207 SLG, 1 steal, 3 runs, 1 RBI
Season (402 ABs): .254 AVG, .302 OBP, .383 SLG, 3 steals, 51 R, 41 RBIs
There were quite a few candidates for "worst line of the week," and the Braves decided to throw their hat in the ring for the first time this season. Unlike some of the other atrocious leadoff weeks, at least the Braves had a respectable five walks against just six strikeouts, which is even more impressive considering Atlanta played three games against the Angels this week (though they did avoid Haren and Weaver).

19. (LW: 13) Los Angeles Dodgers (19-22, 3rd NL West)--WS: 1.055
This Week: 2-5, .241 AVG, .279 OBP, .276 SLG, 1 steal, 5 runs, 1 RBI
Season (385 ABs): .265 AVG, .320 OBP, .332 SLG, 10 steals, 55 R, 21 RBI
Dodgers fans should start to worry--the Padres' leadoff duo has combined for just as many RBIs as the Dodgers' top two, and that's really quite sad. Jamie Carroll is batting well from the leadoff spot, and Aaron Miles from the two-slot...now just to get them both healthy at the same time, and the Dodgers should pop back up the rankings.

18. (LW: 6) Cincinnati Reds (23-17, 1st NL Central)--WS: 1.050
This Week: 2-5, .140 AVG, .222 OBP, .175 SLG, 1 steal, 6 runs, 0 RBIs
Season (383 ABs): .248 AVG, .333 OBP, .397 SLG, 21 steals, 69 R, 40 RBIs
Despite only eight hits in seven games (.140/.222/.175), the Reds leadoff crew managed to score six runs on the week. That's where the good news ends, though, as Drew Stubbs & Co. struck out 17 times compared to only 10 total bases. Now that's just terrible...

17. (LW: 14) Toronto Blue Jays (20-20, t-3rd AL East)--WS: 1.043
This Week: 3-3, .245 AVG, .315 OBP, .429 SLG, 0 steals, 4 runs, 4 RBIs
Season (385 ABs): .249 AVG, .300 OBP, .379 SLG, 14 steals, 52 R, 41 RBIs
Yunel Escobar and Corey Patterson benefit from an unseen force--Jose Bautista, batting just out of our statistical look, in the third slot. Still, the fact that the two have scored an above-average 52 runs (AL avg: 49.1) despite a below-average OBP (AL avg: .339) is due to some help by the front-runner for AL MVP--imagine how many runs they would score with guys who could get on at an average pace.

16. (LW: 11) Milwaukee Brewers (19-21, 3rd NL Central)--WS: 1.037
This Week: 5-2, .224 AVG, .274 OBP, .310 SLG, 3 steals, 5 runs, 1 RBI
Season (383 ABs): .256 AVG, .312 OBP, .397 SLG, 14 steals, 52 R, 27 RBIs
The Brew Crew got a pitiful performance from the top two spots in their order: .224 with only one RBI in seven games. They had as many strike outs (13) as hits, and that's not too far off from the season clip: 92 K's, 98 hits. Rockie Weeks is hitting .287 this season, but he desperately needs help out of the #2 hole in the lineup.

15. (LW: 23) Arizona Diamondbacks (17-22, 4th NL West)--WS: 1.023
This Week: 6-1, .241 AVG, .328 OBP, .370 SLG, 1 steal, 8 runs, 11 RBIs
Season (383 ABs): .235 AVG, .301 OBP, .402 SLG, 20 steals, 57 R, 43 RBIs
The Diamondbacks got a huge jump in the rankings due to having not-awful numbers in a week where it seemed every other team was batting under .200 for the purpose of our statistical gatherings. The return of Willie Bloomquist (.310/.333/.423) means the Diamondbacks could continue rising into next week.

14. (LW: 12) Boston Red Sox (20-20, t-3rd AL East)--WS: 1.016
This Week: 5-1, .250 AVG, .304 OBP, .288 SLG, 5 steals, 8 runs, 3 RBIs
Season (382 ABs): .264 AVG, .336 OBP, .359 SLG, 24 steals, 55 R, 27 RBIs
The Red Sox have gone from a huge disappointment to being just a half-game out of the AL East lead, thanks to continually solid play atop the lineup by Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia. The BoSox are 11-3 since May 7th, and the pair are hitting .298/.361/.355 with 17 runs scored in that span, to go along with 13 steals.

12(t). (LW: 10) Colorado Rockies (20-18, 2nd NL West)--WS: 1.015
This Week: 3-4, .220 AVG, .281 OBP, .237 SLG, 0 steals, 6 runs, 3 RBIs
Season (366 ABs): .254 AVG, .341 OBP, .347 SLG, 7 steals, 51 R, 29 RBIs
In the two seasons prior to this one, Dexter Fowler had stolen 40 bases while being caught 17 times--not the greatest percentage (70.2%), but far better than his first few weeks this year. So far, he's stolen just two bases while getting caught six times--atrocious numbers for any player attempting to be a base stealer, much less someone expected to do it atop the lineup in Colorado.

12(t). (LW: 19) Texas Rangers (21-19, 2nd AL West)--WS: 1.015
This Week: 3-4, .321 AVG, .387 OBP, .375 SLG, 5 steals, 7 runs, 1 RBI
Season (367 ABs): .256 AVG, .326 OBP, .373 SLG, 26 steals, 58 R, 32 RBIs
The top of the Rangers order did a great job getting on base this week, drawing six walks en route to a .387 OBP and seven runs scored.  They only managed 21 total bases on 18 hits, though, which is why they drove in only one run in seven games.

11. (LW: 16) San Francisco Giants (22-17, 1st NL West)--WS: 1.012
This Week: 5-2, .263 AVG, .300 OBP, .351 SLG, 1 steal, 6 runs, 7 RBIs
Season (372 ABs): .269 AVG, .310 OBP, .374 SLG, 4 steals, 42 R, 29 RBIs
Andres Torres and Freddie Sanchez were solid throughout the entire week, garnering a hit in every game as the Giants took two games from the Dodgers and then a sweep against Bay Area rival Oakland. The main problem continues to be the lack of walks--just 22 against 76 strikeouts.

10. (LW: 15) Houston Astros (15-25, 6th NL Central)--WS: 1.000
This Week: 2-5, .232 AVG, .317 OBP, .268 SLG, 3 steals, 6 runs, 2 RBIs
Season (380 ABs): .266 AVG, .333 OBP, .329 SLG, 27 steals, 56 R, 33 RBIs
Michael Bourn is hitting a solid .266 this year with 17 stolen bases and 29 runs scored for the Stros, but he's driven in only 10 runs all season. That's pretty typical for the top of the Houston order, though, as they've driven in only 33 runs in 47 games this season.

9. (LW: 3) Los Angeles Angels (22-19, 1st AL West)--WS: 0.998
This Week: 2-5, .176 AVG, .222 OBP, .216 SLG, 2 steals, 7 runs, 0 RBIs
Season (404 ABs): .292 AVG, .349 OBP, .433 SLG, 19 steals, 44 R, 39 RBIs
After starting the week 0-15, the Angels leadoff men hit a respectable .250. However, they still were at .176/.222/.216 for the week, with 13 strikeouts versus 11 total bases. That's why they didn't drive in a single run all week--an unacceptable feat for an American League lineup.

8. (LW: 4) Philadelphia Phillies (25-14, 1st NL East)--WS: 0.995
This Week: 3-4, .163 AVG, .180 OBP, .184 SLG, 1 steal, 1 run, 1 RBI
Season (375 ABs): .291 AVG, .340 OBP, .440 SLG, 16 steals, 51 R, 45 RBIs
The Phillies plummet in these rankings coincides with the teams' recent offensive coma, scoring just 26 runs in their last 12 games. The lineup gets a boost with the return of Chase Utley this week, so maybe that'll give Jimmy Rollins and whoever's batting behind him some help.

7. (LW: 17) New York Mets (19-21, t-4th NL East)--WS: 0.992
This Week: 3-3, .300 AVG, .352 OBP, .420 SLG, 3 steals, 7 runs, 3 RBIs
Season (378 ABs): .259 AVG, .327 OBP, .370 SLG, 23 steals, 51 R, 27 RBIs
The Mets got a .300/.352/.420 week out of Jose Reyes and some less important guys, bringing up their season averages in all three categories. 15 hits versus five strikeouts is a great ratio for the Metropolitans, but you want to see more than three walks in a week from the MLB stolen bases leader (Reyes, with 17).

6. (LW: 24) Chicago White Sox (17-24, 4th AL Central)--WS: 0.987
This Week: 5-2, .386 AVG, .417 OBP, .596 SLG, 0 steals, 11 runs, 9 RBIs
Season (387 ABs): .271 AVG, .322 OBP, .354 SLG, 8 steals, 49 R, 33 RBIs
Juan Pierre, Alexei Ramirez, & Co. put up a .386/.417/.596 line this week, raising the South Siders' leadoff average in all three statistical categories. They scored 11 runs in 22 games, but you'd like to see more than three walks in a week from this group.

5. (LW: 9) New York Yankees (20-18, 2nd AL East)--WS: 0.959
This Week: 5-2, .246 AVG, .279 OBP, .462 SLG, 1 steal, 10 runs, 10 RBIs
Season (369 ABs): .263 AVG, .325 OBP, .431 SLG, 8 steals, 61 R, 51 RBIs
The Yankees had four games this week in which Derek Jeter and Curtis Granderson combined for three or more hits--though, to be fair, they had 10+ at-bats in three games this week. A few home runs this week by Granderson helped boost that slugging percentage way up.

4. (LW: 8) Pittsburgh Pirates (18-22, t-4th NL Central)--WS: 0.889
This Week: 4-2, .356 AVG, .453 OBP, .533 SLG, 2 steals, 12 runs, 5 RBIs
Season (350 ABs): .269 AVG, .360 OBP, .437 SLG, 21 steals, 58 R, 38 RBIs
A .356/.453/.533 week is a huge step up even for the Pirates leadoff men, who were #8 in last week's rankings. Andrew McCutchen, Jose Tabata, and Xavier Paul scored 12 runs on 16 hits and walked as many times (eight) as they struck out. Their 58 runs scored this season are also towards the top of the Majors, as the Pirates have managed to stay within striking distance of .500.

3. (LW: 1) Chicago Cubs (17-21, t-4th NL Central)--WS: 0.880
This Week: 3-4, .190 AVG, .288 OBP, .207 SLG, 2 steals, 7 runs, 4 RBIs
Season (377 ABs): .326 AVG, .374 OBP, .406 SLG, 7 steals, 53 R, 38 RBIs
Maybe it's time to get Starlin Castro back into that leadoff spot up in Chicago. The last 12 games of Kosuke Fukudome and Darwin Barney have resulted in a wholly mediocre .253/.336/.274 line with just two steals.

2. (LW: 5) St. Louis Cardinals (22-19, 2nd NL Central)--WS: 0.867
This Week: 6-1, .345 AVG, .390 OBP, .436 SLG, 1 steal, 4 runs, 8 RBIs
Season (380 ABs): .300 AVG, .370 OBP, .389 SLG, 8 steals, 53 R, 47 RBI
Ryan Theriot led the way for the Cards this week, hitting .393 with five RBIs and a .419 OBP. He, like the Cards leadoff contingent as a whole, struggled to score runs this week despite a high batting average. Theriot scored only two runs while hitting near .400, and the top two spots in the St. Louis order scored just four times despite hitting .345 for the week.

1. (LW: 2) Cleveland Indians (24-13, 1st AL Central)--WS: 0.849
This Week: 5-2, .333 AVG, .367 OBP, .596 SLG, 4 steals, 16 runs, 15 RBIs
Season (372 ABs): .301 AVG, .345 OBP, .511 SLG, 9 steals, 66 R, 60 RBIs
Michael Brantley and Asdrubal Cabrera hit .333 with an astounding .596 slugging percentage this week (34 total bases in 57 at-bats). Yesterday against the Reds, the duo went a combined 8-9 with five runs, seven RBIs, and 15 total bases--led primarily by Cabrera's pair of long balls for the Tribe.

Previous Rankings: Week 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7

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