Can the Thunder Win without Durant?

Durant didn't score 40 in Game
Two, but OKC got the win

In dramatic, bounce-back, season-saving fashion, the Oklahoma City Thunder pulled out a win last night over the red-hot Dallas Mavericks at the American Airlines Center in Dallas. It was the first time all postseason that the Mavericks lost a game at home, and it tied the Western Conference Finals up at one game apiece. A huge reason that the Thunder were able to win Game Two was that they limited Dirk Nowitzki to 19 fewer points and 14 fewer free throw attempts. By keeping the Mavs' best player from dominating the game, Scott Brooks' crew forced the rest of the Dallas team to hit shots--and they didn't. However, the Thunder did not just perform differently on the defensive end on Game Two--their offense was completely changed as well. Despite scoring only six fewer points in Game Two than in Game One, the Thunder got 28 more points (50 instead of 22) from their bench. They also got 16 fewer points from NBA scoring champ Kevin Durant (see above) and 11 more points from the team's third-highest scorer, James Harden. This got me thinking...do the Thunder really play better when Durant scores fewer points? Any team obviously wants its star players to score as many points as possible, but do the Thunder really succeed when Durant is such a huge part of the offense? Or do they need contributions from Harden and others to succeed? Well, we ran the stats, so hit the jump to check out the results.

The NBA Playoffs: Does Defense Really Improve? (Part 3 of 3)

(This is the final part of a three-part series on defense in the NBA Playoffs)

Part One: The 1980s
Part Two: The 1990s

We often hear from NBA analysts that defense improves, or at least intensifies between game 82 of the regular season and Game 1 of the playoffs. It seems intuitive enough, the playoffs start and there’s a lot to play for: pride, fame, and winning the ‘ship. All that tends to lead to more aggressive play. The LeBron James's drive harder to the basket while the Andrew Bynum's go up for the block harder. It's human nature-- the more that's on the line, the harder they play. But does that aggression lead to better defense during the playoffs? Play-by-play guys and experts like to say it does. Coaches and players like to say it does. But do the stats agree? They didn't for the 1980s...but now we're looking at the 90s. Let's take a look.

NHL Eastern and Western Conference Catch-Up

The talk of the Eastern Conference Finals coming in was goaltending and how major its role would be in the series.  In two games already, there have been a combined 18 goals scored as the series is tied at one apiece heading to Tampa Bay.  Despite a 6-5 loss on Tuesday night, the Lightning have the Bruins right where they want them as they dominated Game 1 and now have the home-ice advantage working for them.  Tim Thomas, the likely Vezina Trophy winner, has allowed five goals in each of the first two games and has already allowed more than he did against Philadelphia in Round 2.  At age 37, Thomas is still capable of playing his very best hockey in hopes of leading the Bruins to their first Stanley Cup since 1971-72.  Dwayne Roloson had won eight straight games before faltering in Game 2, as he has the Lightning just three wins away from the Stanley Cup Finals.  Tampa Bay was a team that many people had forgotten about late in the season as they took a nosedive and lost the division lead, but they have made some noise in the post-season.

Offensively, the Lightning are still every bit as deep as they have been all season.  They have had 10 different players score their 10 goals in this series.  Their "spreading of the wealth" offensively has them in an enviable position heading home tied at one game apiece.  To their credit, the Lightning have rifled 74 shots at Thomas in just two games.  Possibly they took notes from both Philadelphia and Montreal and realize that getting the puck at Thomas, or any goalie for that matter, is half the battle. This young Tampa team tends to take on the tenacious personality of its coach Guy Boucher, and that is a good thing in terms of their grit and will.  Boucher, at age 39 and in his first NHL season has turned Tampa's fortunes back to pre-lockout.  Remember, they did win the Stanley Cup back in 2003-04, just before the lockout.  Perhaps no team was hurt more by the lockout as this is just the third time (post-lockout) that the Lightning have made the post-season.  The Lightning have shown in this series that they do not need success from Steven Stamkos, Vincent Lecavalier or Martin St. Louis alone to win hockey games.  Of their "big three," just St. Louis registered a point in their 5-2 victory in Game 1.

Boston finally was able to get something going in Game 2 as rookie Tyler Seguin took over with four points (2G, 2A).  Seguin, who had just 22 points this season, has already had six in two postseason games (both in this series).  He was nowhere to be found against Montreal or Philadelphia, but he has now stepped in for the injured Patrice Bergeron.  Although not glorified for offensive depth, Boston proves they have a bit of it with this replacement.  Keep in mind that Seguin himself is just 19-years-old.  Boston also boasts the ever-dangerous Milan Lucic (see above), Nathan Horton and Michael Ryder among others.  Defensively, Zdeno Chara, their captain, is their rock as usual.  Chara heads one of the game's best and deepest defenses.  In Tuesday night's game, the Bruins scored five goals on Roloson on just nine shots.  At long last, Boston's power play appears to be clicking as they have went 2-for-10 in the first two games.  At 20%, they are far better than in their first two series when they went an abysmal 2-for-37 with the man advantage.

Hit the jump to read about the Western Conference Finals:

NBA Playoffs: A Look Ahead (Eastern Conference Edition)

Yesterday I wrote a column looking at the NBA Western Conference to see what the Thunder and Mavericks had to do to win the NBA Championship--and what could trip them up along the way.  The verdict, in short, was that the Thunder aren't ready to be championship contenders, while the Mavericks can win if they play up to their potential.  Vegas oddsmakers thought that the Mavericks (+250) were about twice as likely as the Thunder (+500) to win it all, and the analysis yesterday pretty much agreed.  Today, we're going to turn to the Eastern Conference and analyze the chances of the Heat and Bulls each winning the Title.  The series between NBA MVP Derrick Rose and Miami's Big 3 (see right) must have the NBA salivating.  It's a matchup of two of the most hyped teams that have some of the most hyped players in the Association.  But who is going to win this series?  And once they advance to the Finals, can that team win the Championship?  Can either team win it?  D-Rose or D-Wade?  Slow and soft Chris Bosh or slow and soft Carlos Boozer?  Can anyone stop LeBron? Hit the jump to find out.

NHL Eastern and Western Conference Finals Predictions

The NHL Eastern Conference Finals will be headed by two fantastic goalies drinking from the fountain of youth. Both Tim Thomas (37 years old) and Dwayne Roloson (41) have  taken long, similar paths to  get to this point in  their respective careers. Thomas
(left) has reclaimed his stake as “the guy” in  Boston’s net and could ride that to a Stanley Cup. Or, will Roloson and Tampa Bay continue their miracle run and represent the East? Goalies will be in the spotlight in this series, but will they be the only ones that will shine? These are two of the highest-scoring teams in the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Western Conference Finals pits the top two seeds head-to-head as the Vancouver Canucks and San Jose Sharks do battle. These two teams have never faced one another in the NHL playoffs, and both have struggled in recent years in the postseason despite phenomenal regular season success. San Jose won the President’s Trophy in 2008-09 with 117 points but were hastily ousted by the Anaheim Ducks in Round 1. Vancouver has been a top seed in the West in each of the past two seasons but have been eliminated in the Semis twice. This season though, they enter in as the President’s Trophy winners and the unquestioned #1 seed in the Western Conference. Common belief is that the winner of this series will win the Stanley Cup. Not so fast though as the East winner, whomever that may be, will surely have something to say about that. So how do these series shake out? Hit the jump to see:

NBA Playoffs: A Look Ahead (Western Conference Edition)

Since the NBA playoffs started, all we've been doing here at SportStatistics is looking backwards. We've looked at some great/awful individual lines and stats from the previous day's action, and we've  done recaps of almost every postseason game played thus far in 2011. What we haven't done yet, though, is look ahead to the rest of the postseason and assess what is likely to come. Since we're roughly half way through the NBA postseason, I figured now would be a good time to step back from dissecting each individual game in incredible detail and instead look at what is likely to transpire in the Conference Finals and in the NBA Finals. Will Dirk (see right) finally get that first ring?  Can D-Rose be NBA MVP and Finals MVP?  Will the Evil Empire of South Beach continue to make me unhappy? And what about the NBA's humblest superstar, Kevin Durant?  Hit the jump to find out.

The NBA Playoffs: Does Defense Really Improve? (Part 2 of 3)

(This is the second part of a three-part series on defense in the NBA Playoffs)

Part One: The 1980s

We often hear from NBA analysts that defense improves, or at least intensifies between game 82 of the regular season and Game 1 of the playoffs. It seems intuitive enough, the playoffs start and there’s a lot to play for: pride, fame, and winning the ‘ship. All that tends to lead to more aggressive play. The LeBron James's drive harder to the basket while the Andrew Bynum's go up for the block harder. It's human nature-- the more that's on the line, the harder they play. But does that aggression lead to better defense during the playoffs? Play-by-play guys and experts like to say it does. Coaches and players like to say it does. But do the stats agree? They didn't for the 1980s...but now we're looking at the 90s. Let's take a look.

NBA Playoffs Second Round: Night Ten

Eastern Conference

Boston Celtics (3) @ Miami Heat (2)
5/1: Game One--HEAT 99, Celtics 90 (1-0, Miami)
5/3: Game Two--HEAT 102, Celtics 91 (2-0, Miami)
5/7: Game Three--CELTICS 97, Heat 81 (2-1, Miami)
5/9: Game Four--Heat 98, CELTICS 90 (3-1, Miami)
5/11: Game Five--HEAT 97, Celtics 87 (4-1, Miami wins)

Unlike in Games Three and Four, the matchup of Kevin Garnett and Chris Bosh did not decide the pivotal Game Five. Bosh had 14 points and 11 rebounds compared to 15 and 11 for KG. Like the power forward matchup, this game was close the whole way.  Boston entered the fourth quarter with a two-point lead, and the game was tied until 2:10 remaining in the game. That's when LeBron exploded, running off 10 consecutive points, by shooting 4-4 from the field and 2-2 from behind the arc. Miami scored the final 16 points of the game, in fact, as they turned a six-point Boston lead with 4:15 remaining into a 10-point victory. During that time, Boston did not grab a single offensive rebound, yet they committed three costly turnovers. That short stretch is a microcosm of why the Heat prevailed in Game Five: ball control.  The Heat grabbed four more offensive rebounds than the Celtics did while also turning the ball over eight fewer times.  That's twelve additional possessions for LeBron and D-Wade (see above), who were hot all night long.  They combined for 67 points on 24-39 shooting (61.5%) plus 21 rebounds and seven assists.  They key, actually, was Miami's ability to get to the free throw line.  Boston hit one more field goal than--and the same number of three pointers as--the Heat in Game Five.  Miami's constant slashing to the bucket, though, garnered them 18 additional free throw attempts.  They hit 12 of those 18, including six in an otherwise poor shooting first quarter.  By staying alive early with free throws and ball control, the Heat kept themselves in position to use their explosiveness late in the game to pull out the victory.  Now on to the Eastern Conference Finals

Hit the jump to read about Grizzlies/Thunder!

NBA Playoffs Second Round: Night Nine

Eastern Conference

Atlanta Hawks (5) @ Chicago Bulls (1)

5/2: Game One--Hawks 103, BULLS 95 (1-0, Atlanta)

5/4: Game Two--BULLS 86, Hawks 73 (1-1, Tie)

5/6: Game Three--Bulls 99, HAWKS 82 (2-1, Chicago)

5/8: Game Four--HAWKS 100, Bulls 88 (2-2, Tie)

5/10: Game Five-- BULLS 95, Hawks 83 (3-2, Chicago)

Spoiler Alert: he misses.

Despite an 11-point Chicago advantage after the first quarter, the Hawks crawled back into Game Five last night and cut the Bulls lead to two points heading into the fourth quarter.  That final period was never really close, though, as there was too much Derrick Rose for the Hawks to handle.  He hit outside shots, he hit inside shots, and he drove to the basket.  All in all, D-Rose scored 11 of his game-high 33 points in the fourth, as the Bulls won this game going away. Chicago was helped out by some horific outside shooting on the part of the Hawks. They went 1-12 (8.3%) from downtown, including 1-9 from Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford. Those guys were first and second on the team in three-pointers made during the regular season (if you exclude the departed Mike Bibby), but they couldn't hit the backside of a barn from behind the arc last night.  Though Johnson managed to have a serviceable game for himself (15 points, 40% shooting), Crawford stunk it up in Game Five.  He went 1-9 from the field, didn't get to the free throw line once (despite attempting 4.7 per game in the post season before last night), and ended up with only two points.  Crawford's 17.7 points per game in the playoffs this season had been a huge boost to the Hawks--including a game-winner against the Magic.  However, he kept throwing up bricks last night, and the Bulls took the surprisingly easy win.

The NBA Playoffs: Does Defense Really Improve? (Part 1 of 3)

(This is the first part of a three-part series on defense in the NBA Playoffs)

We often hear from NBA analysts that defense improves, or at least intensifies between game 82 of the regular season and Game 1 of the playoffs. It seems intuitive enough, the playoffs start and there’s a lot to play for: pride, fame, and winning the ‘ship. All that tends to lead to more aggressive play. The LeBron James's drive harder to the basket while the Andrew Bynum's go up for the block harder. It's human nature-- the more that's on the line, the harder they play. But does that aggression lead to better defense during the playoffs? Play-by-play guys and experts like to say it does. Coaches and players like to say it does. But do the stats agree? Let's take a look.

NBA Playoffs Second Round: Night Eight

Eastern Conference

Boston Celtics (3) @ Miami Heat (2)
5/1: Game One--HEAT 99, Celtics 90 (1-0, Miami) 
5/3: Game Two--HEAT 102, Celtics 91 (2-0, Miami)
5/7: Game Three--CELTICS 97, Heat 81 (2-1, Miami)
5/9: Game Four--Heat 98, CELTICS 90 (3-1, Miami) 

For the first time in this second round series, the road team won a game.  That's bad news for the Boston Celtics, as they now are in a 3-1 hole, needing to win the final three games of this series to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals.  To do so, they would need to win both games at the American Airlines Arena in Miami, a place where they are 0-2 in the playoffs and 1-1 in the regular season.  That does not bode well for the C's, since they lost by an average of 10 points in Miami during the first two games of this series.  Last night's loss was particularly troubling for Doc Rivers' squad because the key to their Game Three win, Kevin Garnett, looked overmatched in Game Four.  His dominance of Miami counterpart Chris Bosh led to a blowout win for the Celtics over the weekend.  Last night, though, Bosh had a bounce-back performance in shutting down KG--and putting up some pretty nice numbers himself.  In Game Three, Bosh shot 1-6 en route to an underwhelming six-point effort.  In Game Four, he shot 8-17 (47.1%), scoring 20 points and pulling down 12 rebounds.  Bosh was strong on the defensive end, as well.  He held Garnett to seven points on 1-10 shooting.  He also prevented KG, the two-time NBA rebounding champion, from grabbing a single offensive rebound.  By contrast, Bosh pulled down four on the offensive glass, which he promptly turned into six Miami points.  The news was not all bad for Boston, though.  Paul Pierce shot 10-20 (50%), going off for 27 points and eight rebounds.  LeBron James still outplayed the Celtics small forward, netting 35 points, 14 rebounds, and three steals on the night.  One more win, and the newer Big 3 are in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Hit the jump to read about the Thunder/Grizzlies game!

NBA Playoffs Second Round: Weekend Recap

Though four fan-bases might disagree with me, I thought we got a really fun weekend of NBA playoff action the last two days. Three teams pulled off upsets, including one by mounting a 13-point comeback in the fourth quarter only to win in overtime. Another upset tied the series at two games apiece, while the third was the product of NBA-record shooting performances. There were ejections and rejections and three-pointers galore. Hit the jump to read all about it.

NHL Playoffs Update

The NHL Playoffs are as entertaining as any playoff in any sport. This year is no different. The Boston Bruins avenged their monumental collapse from a season ago, and the Tampa Bay Lightning secured another early round exit for the Washington Capitals. Both of those series were quick and painless for the victors. As for the Western Conference, the two remaining series have become quite a battle. Early on, it looked as if both series' would end rather quickly. However, the Predators and Red Wings have both clawed their way back into their respective series and are in great positions to force pivotal Game Sevens. Hit the jump to see my complete playoff review of the Conference Semifinals.

NBA Playoffs Second Round: Night Five

Eastern Conference

Atlanta Hawks (5) @ Chicago Bulls (1)

5/2: Game One--Hawks 103, BULLS 95 (1-0, Atlanta)

5/4: Game Two--BULLS 86, Hawks 73 (1-1, Tie)

5/6: Game Three--Bulls 99, HAWKS 82 (2-1, Chicago)

Joakim Noah was a beast on the boards
in Game Three in Atlanta

Well, the Bulls don't look so vulnerable anymore.  I've had to eat a slice of humble pie over the last few days because, after I wrote that the Bulls did not look long for the playoffs, they've run off two straight double-digit victories over the Hawks. Last night's win was the most impressive because it came in Atlanta, where the Hawks had not yet lost in the postseason.  Chicago was in control the whole way in this one, leading by 13 at halftime and 17 after three quarters. Game Three really was the Derrick Rose show, as the youngest-ever NBA MVP dropped a career-high 44 points on the unsuspecting Hawks. His 59.3% shooting from the field (16-27) and 4-7 performance from downtown was a sharp departure from the first two games of the series, in which D-Rose shot a combined 21-54 (38.9%) on field goals and 3-15 (20%) on three's.  Rose's career high could not have come at a better time, because now the Bulls have home court advantage back and can advance to the Eastern Conference Finals just by holding serve at the United Center.  If Chicago continues to play the way they did last night, they are likely to do just that.  Not only did Rose live up to his MVP award, but his teammates were fantastic as well.  The Bulls shot 10-20 (50%) from downtown last night, and they outrebounded the Hawks 47-34.  Joakim Noah was particularly dominant in the paint, pulling down 15 rebounds (eight offensive) and blocking five Atlanta shots.  Despite another subpar performance from Carlos Boozer (six points, six rebounds), the Bulls were helped by Taj Gibson stepping up with 13 points and 11 rebounds off the bench.  This was a complete effort from the East's top seed, as they dominated every phase of the game and looked like the team that played to the NBA's best record during the regular season.

Western Conference

Dallas Mavericks (3) @ Los Angeles Lakers (2)

5/2: Game One--Mavericks 96, LAKERS 94 (1-0, Dallas)

5/4: Game Two--Mavericks 93, LAKERS 81 (2-0, Dallas) 

5/6: Game Three--MAVERICKS 98, Lakers 92 (3-0, Dallas)

The Mavericks stymied Kobe Bryant and the

Lakers down the stretch in Game Three

Another close game between the Lakers and the Mavericks, and, once again, Dallas comes out on top. Just like in Game One, this contest was tied in the final two minutes and the Lakers had ample opportunities to win. The Mavs were able to execute while the Lakers made careless mistakes, though, including a bad inbounds pass that gave the Mavericks the ball and more free throws with fewer than 20 seconds remaining.  Perfect free throw shooting down the stretch enabled Dallas to ice the game and prevent Kobe Bryant (see above) from getting a potential game-tying shot. Granted, barely pulling out a win at home is not the most ringing endorsement of the Mavericks' fitness for the Western Conference Finals, but they have managed to win close games this postseason, including against the defending champs.  Last night, just like in the first two games, the Mavs won by playing to their strengths and minimizing the Lakers' own advantages.  Dallas continued to have good ball movement, racking up assists on 71% (22 of 31) of all field goals--compared to just 48.7% (19 of 39) for the Lakers.  That strong team play allowed the Mavericks to find open shooters down the stretch--like Peja Stojakovic and Jason Terry, who each hit big three-pointers--while the Lakers struggled through isolation sets to Bryant and Lamar Odom.  Another result of this ball movement is that Dallas excelled at the perimeter game.  They shot 41.4% from behind the arc compared to just 23.1% for Los Angeles.  That's 12 treys for the Mavs and just three for the defending champs--a huge difference.  Dallas also worked to minimize the Lakers proclivity for controlling the ball.  During the regular season, Phil Jackson's squad committed the fifth-fewest turnovers in the league.  In the final four minutes last night in Dallas, though, the Lakers committed two turnovers, which the Mavericks promptly turned into four points.  By continuing to play to their strengths--passing and outside shooting--the Mavericks are up 3-0 in this series.  All 98 teams to be down 3-0 in NBA history have eventually been eliminated, so this doesn't look to promising for the Lakers.

Are the Mavericks for Real?

With their win in Los Angeles on Wednesday night, the Mavericks now have a commanding 2-0 lead over the two-time defending champion Lakers. The Mavs won two road games, and now they can win the series even if they only protect their home floor two out of three times. Though the Mavericks are still the #3 seed in the Western Conference, the Lakers seemed like the prohibitive favorites to win: they have home-court advantage, they are two-time defending champs, and they have an elite late-game shooter in Kobe Bryant. All those advantages seemed to be enough to ensure that the Lakers would win and move on the the Western Conference Finals. Though they still might, their chances look increasingly slim, and the Mavericks--so far--look like the team that will earn a date with the Thunder or the Grizzlies. But will they really? And if they do, how deep can the Mavs playoff run extend? Is this team, which surprised most of us in taking the first two games of the series, the real deal? Hit the jump to find out.

NBA Playoffs Second Round: Night Four

Eastern Conference

Atlanta Hawks (5) @ Chicago Bulls (1)

5/2: Game One--Hawks 103, BULLS 95 (1-0, Atlanta)

5/4: Game Two--BULLS 86, Hawks 73 (1-1, Tie)

Marvin Williams's 2-9 shooting in Game
Two wasn't good enough for the Hawks

This was a game the Bulls absolutely had to have--to avoid heading to Atlanta in a 2-0 hole--and they got it in dominating fashion.  The Hawks never really threatened after Chicago went into halftime with an 11-point edge, and the Bulls cruised to a 13-point victory.  The big difference in this game--and I know it's not an exciting difference--was shooting percentage: 39.3% for the Bulls compared to only 33.8% for the Hawks.  Atlanta's starting forwards, Marvin Williams (see right) and Josh Smith, combined to shoot 6-23 from the floor, only 26.1%.   If you add in starting center Al Horford and sixth man Jamal Crawford, that group of four critical Hawks players shot 11-45 (24.4%) from the field last night.  Sure, starting guards Joe Johnson and Jeff Teague had solid performances (37 points on 14-29 shooting) for head coach Larry Drew, but they got almost no help from their teammates.  The Bulls, by contrast, got solid performances up and down the lineup.  Derrick Rose turned in his usual big performance, with 26 points, six rebounds, and 10 assists.  His eight turnovers are certainly cause for concern, but his defensive intensity (two blocked shots) and distributing ability (10 assists) are good signs.  Chicago even got a fantastic all-around performance from Joakim Noah.  He scored 19 points (6-8 FG, 7-8 FT), with 14 rebounds (seven offensive), two assists, three steals, and a block.  With Carlos Boozer failing to reach double-figures in scoring (eight points) last night, Noah's 19 points were huge for a Bulls team that desperately needed this victory.

Hit the jump to read the Lakers/Mavericks recap!

Stat of the Day: Sweep Revenge

(Editor's Note: Meant to run this a week ago...got lost in the shuffle! Still, it's a really cool piece, and definitely worth a read)

Last week in Atlanta, the Hawks avenged their playoff sweep at the hands of the Orlando Magic in 2010. By winning the series, they became the 9th team in the last 30 years win a series against the team who swept them in the playoffs the previous season. In the following table, teams in bold have achieved the feat and the teams in red got swept two years in a row by the same team.

Last night, the Hawks became the first team since the 2003 Nets to avenge their series sweep by winning in the postseason the following year. Atlanta accomplished the same feat in 1996, actually, when they defeated the Indiana Pacers 3-2 in the first round. The previous postseason, the Pacers swept the Hawks out of the playoffs. Interestingly, the Pacers were victims of "sweep revenge" for two consecutive postseasons. In 1994, Indiana swept the Orlando Magic, who would go on to beat them in the 1995 Eastern Conference Finals. On their way to face the Magic in 1995, though, the Pacers swept the Hawks, who would then take revenge against them in 1996. Lastly, the 2001 Lakers dominated their competition by sweeping through the Western Conference playoffs. In 2002, Los Angeles faced those same three foes again, and they won all three series.  They even swept the Portland Trailblazers for the second consecutive year in a row. Now that's domination.

There's A Stat For That

NBA Playoffs Second Round: Night Two

Eastern Conference

Atlanta Hawks (5) @ Chicago Bulls (1)
5/2: Game One--Hawks 103, BULLS 95 (1-0, Atlanta)

A microcosm of Carlos Boozer's
Game One against the Hawks

For the entirety of Round One, I wrote that the Bulls looked incredibly vulnerable against the Pacers, and that Indiana would get at least one win in the series.  I also said that Chicago's inability to play well against the Pacers meant they'd have trouble in later rounds--and that showed last night against the Hawks.  In fact, the Bulls suffered from many of the same problems that led them to play such close games against the under-.500 Pacers.  They got very little support from the bench (only 22 points, compared to 37 for the Hawks), Carlos Boozer (see right) failed to become a significant factor (only 14 points, compared to his pre-2011 playoff average of 20.3 ppg), and Derrick Rose took too many shots yet again (27, compared to a high of 18 for everyone else).  Against Indiana, the Bulls could get away with these troubling trends because they were the far more talented team and had far more playoff experience.  Against the Hawks, though, they were unable to do so because the Hawks have been battle-tested in the playoffs each of the past four season.  The big difference for Atlanta last night was Joe Johnson, who had the breakout performance that Indiana's Danny Granger never could against Chicago.  He had 34 points on 12-18 shooting (66.7%) while also hitting all five of his three-pointers and all five of his free throws.  In contrast to Rose, who hit 40.7% of his field goals, Johnson's remarkable efficiency meant he could score more than D-Rose while also getting his teammates involved.  Johnson had a huge Game Six against the Magic, and he's continuing his strong performances in Chicago.  The Bulls better watch out.

Western Conference

Dallas Mavericks (3) @ Los Angeles Lakers (2)
5/2: Game One--Mavericks 96, LAKERS 94 (1-0, Dallas)

In the most exciting game of the Second Round so far, Dirk and the Mavericks edged Kobe's Lakers in the final minute.  They have a 1-0 lead in the series, and home court advantage now belongs to Dallas.  Though the officiating was somewhat questionable down the stretch, Dallas managed to hit the big shots that they needed, while Kobe missed his last-second attempt to tie. Jason Kidd (see left) played superb defense on Bryant in crunch time, proving that he has value well beyond his seven points scored. For most of he night, though, Kobe was phenomenal, scoring 36 points on 48.3% shooting, while also pulling down five rebounds.  The problem for the Lakers last night was the lack of scoring depth. Only Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom were in double-figures scoring (15 points each) to complement Kobe. Andrew Bynum--who looked fantastic against the Blazers--and Ron Artest combined for only 10 points on 4-16 shooting (25%).  In addition, the Lakers bench outside of Odom only provided 10 points and one assist while committing three turnovers.  The Mavericks, by contrast, had five players in double-figures scoring, including Peja Stojakovic and Jason Terry off the bench.  Dirk Nowitzki was stellar like always (25.7 career ppg in the playoffs), scoring 28 points on 50% shooting to go along with 14 rebounds.  If Dirk continues to score at will and J-Kidd manages to keep playing solid defense on Kobe down the stretch, the Mavs might actually surprise some people in this series.

Stat of the Day: May 3rd (Lakers-Mavs Edition)

An interesting stat came to mind as the Lakers/Mavs series is set to start: Kobe and Dirk have never played each other in the playoffs. The table below tries to find out if this quirky stat is because they just missed playing each other in some years or because they weren’t on track to play each other. The table assumes that the Western Conference playoffs go chalk, or all the higher seeds win their series. An example of how the chart works is as follows: If the playoffs went according to the seeding, the Lakers should have played Denver 3 times, but only played them twice.

I think the real interesting stat is not that the Lakers and Mavs haven’t played each other in the playoffs during the Kobe-Dirk era, but that they were only expected to play once in the 9 times that they have been in the playoffs together. No other Western Conference team had as many common playoff appearances with Lakers, with as few expected match-ups with the Lakers.

There's A Stat For That

NBA Playoffs, Game 7: How important is home-court? (Conf. Semis)

As the NBA playoffs are upon us, we will hear dozens of clichés thrown around by commentators.  The most irritating cliché is that the home team wins Game 7 of the series most of the time.  Since 1991, the home team is 36-10, a .783 win percentage.  This stat is always brought up without being put into proper context; as if to say having Game 7 at home causes a team to win.  However, I’ve never heard a commentator mention that the team with home-court advantage has a better record and usually is the better team anyway.  One would expect them to win a Game 7 at home, or on the road.  In this article and subsequent articles, I will try to find out how many Game 7s were won by the home team mainly because they were at home.