Leadoff Rankings: Week 8

Previous Rankings: Week 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7

The eighth weekend of the 2011 season has come and gone, and we're changing up the way we do our rankings. For the first time, our Leadoff Rankings have been determined not by my all-knowing power, but by the use of a formula. Similar to what we did on Thursday with our Rotation Rankings, we set all the statistics relative to league average, and then weighted each statistic to mean more or less than others (OBP means more than slugging percentage, for example). This gives us an overall average of 1.000, with lower scores correlating to above-average performance. More a fan of pitching? Check out our Rotation Rankings, published every Thursday, where we rank each team by the performance of their starting pitchers. The rankings are based on season performance (90%), with a small bias towards recent performance. The stats come from each team's first and second batters every game, regardless of the name on the back of the jersey. To see how things turned out this week, hit the jump!

Stat Line of the Day: May 20th

J. Giambi (COL): 3-5, 3 R, 7 RBI, 3 HR vs. Phillies
When Jason Giambi won his only MVP, at the age of 29, he hit 43 home runs and drove in 137 RBIs. That was eleven seasons ago. Now 40, the veteran is still playing, though he  hasn't had more than 400 at-bats in a season since he was 37, back in 2007

Giambi went yard three times in Philadelphia

with the New York Yankees. In fact, coming into last night, Giambi (left) hadn't even gotten a hit since April 10th, a series of 11 personal games (but 34 Rockies games). Then, for some reason, he remembered his MVP ways for one game in Philadelphia. Giambi hit a home run in his first three at-bats. The first one, against Kyle Kendrick, came in the first inning with two men on base. The next long ball, also off Kendrick, was a two-run shot in the third inning, scoring Carlos Gonzalez. The final long ball came off Danyz Baez in the fifth inning, with Troy Tulowitzki on base. Coming into the game, Giambi had just one home run and four RBIs on the season. The three home runs alone added 40.7% to the win for Giambi, the 79th time this season that a batter added more than 40% to their team's win probability.

The Great Debate: 5/19

Welcome to the May 19th edition of the Great Debate. Today, Andrew Leff and Jake Adams discuss some of the most interesting sports topics of the day. Today, we talk about the never-ending NFL lockout, the recent Heat-Bulls contest, a frustrating start from the NL East favorites, and a surprising comeback in the NL Central. Hit the jump for the discussion!

Division Updates Part 4: AL East

The American League East is generally believed to be one of he most competitive divisions in all of baseball. So far this season no one team has proven to be the team to beat in the division. The five teams that make up the AL East are separated by a mere four games, and all have areas in which they can improve. The much anticipated Red Sox have just poked their heads over .500, and the sliding Yankees have given way to the most consistent team--the Tampa Bay Rays. There is only one way to try and understand what has happened so far in the AL East, lets dissect this division by the numbers. Let's take a look:

Rotation Rankings: Week 7

Previous Rankings: Week 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6

Week seven of our Rotation Rankings: the statistical ranking of every rotation in Major League Baseball. More a fan of offense? Check out our Leadoff Rankings, based on every teams' first and second batters.This week, we're bringing out something new: a normalized formula. For the last few weeks, we've been basically eyeballing the stats, using our knowledge of the teams as well as the numbers to try and place each time in a slot that made the most sense based on season performance, while keeping in mind how the last week went for each team. Now, however, we have a formula--using WHIP, ERA, and some other statistics, we've compared them all to league averages to come up with normalized scores, which we've then set to a ratio according to importance (WHIP being more important than K/9, for example), which gives us a final, weighted, relative score. The season stats get weighted towards 90% of the total, while the last week's statistics account for the last 10% (allowing some fluctuation based on recent performance, which is really what most Power Rankings do without realizing it). To see how much movement there was when we switched to the formula (as well as how your favorite team stacks up), hit the jump!

Stat Line of the Day: May 17th

V. Mazzaro (KC): 2.1 IP, 11 H, 14 R (14 ER), 3 BB, 2 Ks vs. CLE
You never want to see players have a "historically bad" night, but that's exactly what Vin Mazzaro did last night  in Kansas City. To  be fair to Mazzaro, he was put in a lose-

Mazzaro has the distinction of throwing possibly
the worst relief appearance in MLB history

lose situation: starter Kyle Davies had been removed after just one-third of an inning, after he walked three of the first four batters he faced while throwing just six of his 21 pitches for strikes. So, when the 24-year-old Mazzaro (left) came on to start the fourth inning, he was already the second reliever in the game--manager Ned Yost needed him to get through innings, not win the Royals the game. Unfortunately, Mazzaro ended up putting up the worst relief pitching line since at least 1919 (and possibly MLB history), allowing 12 of the final 14 batters he faced to get on base safely. If his appearance had been a start, he would have been tagged with a gamescore of -19, which would be the lowest since Oakland's Mike Oquist -21 in 1998. In fact, those are the lowest two gamescores since 1957--so that gives you an idea just how awful Mazzaro was. In the fourth inning alone, he gave up seven hits and 10 runs, finished off by a three-run shot by Michael Brantley. However, due to the Royals need of someone to just pitch more innings, Mazzaro got sent out for the fifth. After getting the first out, he allowed the next four batters to reach, loading the bases with one out for new reliever Jeremy Jeffress. Then, to add insult to injury, Jeffress allowed all three of those runners to score, ending Mazzaro's line for the day. The final blow? After the game (just his second of the season), Mazzaro was sent back down to the minor leagues.

The Great Debate: 5/16

Welcome to the May 16th edition of the Great Debate. Today, Andrew Leff and I discuss some of the most interesting sports topics of the day. Today, we talk about Phoenix Suns President Rick Welts' startling revelation, the fate of the two NBA Playoff games last night, and whether one MLB squad of aging stars has finally been shown the door. Hit the jump for the discussion!

Leadoff Rankings: Week 7

Previous Rankings: Week 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6

The seventh weekend of the 2011 season has come and gone, and we're changing up the way we do our rankings. For the first time, our Leadoff Rankings have been determined not by my all-knowing power, but by the use of a formula. Similar to what we did on Thursday with our Rotation Rankings, we set all the statistics relative to league average, and then weighted each statistic to mean more or less than others (OBP means more than slugging percentage, for example). This gives us an overall average of 1.000, with lower scores correlating to above-average performance. More a fan of pitching? Check out our Rotation Rankings, published every Thursday, where we rank each team by the performance of their starting pitchers. The rankings are based on season performance (90%), with a small bias towards recent performance. The stats come from each team's first and second batters every game, regardless of the name on the back of the jersey. To see how things turned out this week, hit the jump!

Stat Line of the Day: May 14th

K. Durant (OKC): 3-14 (1-9 3pt), 11 points, 5 fouls, 2 assts, 7 rebs @ MEM

This is what Durant needed to do
more of last night in Memphis

Oklahoma City had a chance to end their series with the Grizzlies in Game Six. They had a chance to advance to the conference finals for the first time in Thunder history, and the first time for the franchise since 1995-'96 (as the SuperSonics). Kevin Durant (right), the 22-year-old emerging superstar, needed to have a good game--not even a great one--for the Thunder to advance. In that respect, along with the result of the game, Durant lost. Part of the problem was his shot selection; Durant is an ultra-athletic wing with the ability to take the ball to the basket, but he took nine of his 14 shots from beyond the arc, which is far too high of a percentage for someone in his position. KD needs to create contact (he averages eight free-throws a game for his career), not just jack shots from beyond the arc. Durant is a pretty good shooter from distance, shooting 35.8% for his career, but he's a smart enough player to understand that some nights the shots just aren't going in. The great players understand which parts of their game are working on some nights and which parts aren't, and adjust accordingly. The good news is, Durant is only 22, and these are lessons that he will learn over the course of his career--he is one of those great players. Last night might have been the night he learned his lesson, and if so he's lucky he's got one more game to try and lead his team to the promised land.

Honorable Mention(s)

C. Martinez (ATL): 4 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 4 Ks vs. PHI
On first glance, you would think Cristhian Martinez's relief apperance wouldn't exactly seem to merit a Stat Line of the Night mention, even if it is just an HM. Four innings of perfect relief against the Phillies is a pretty solid night, however. Add in the fact that the Phils' offense had six hits off starter Brandon Beachy before he left with an oblique injury before the third inning, and Martinez actually did quite a job holding the Phils back while his offense brought the Braves back. He was helped by a game tying, 2-RBI double...by Cristhian Martinez (his first career hit and first career RBIs).

C. Maybin (SD): 4-for-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 3 R @ COL
San Diego has been struggling offensively, aside from their talented young centerfielder. Maybin's batting .273/.348/.453, and last night he tried to single-handedly carry his team to a win in Denver. The Padres did score seven runs for only the sixth time this season, but unfortunately it was for naught--the Rockies won, 13-7.

Stat of the Day: May 13th

Carlos Beltran: 3-5, 3 HR, 6 RBI, 3R vs. COL

Beltran had the 8th 3-HR game
in Mets history--all on the road

Beltran’s knee might be going, but his bat sure isn’t. Carlos provided the majority of the Mets’ offense in Colorado last night as the Mets took the final two against the Rockies. He went deep the first time in the first inning off starter Ubaldo Jiminez (3.2 IP, 5 ER), again in the 7th off reliever Franklin Morales, and again in the 9th off Matt Lindstrom. The long balls were the 6th, 7th, and 8th of the season for Beltran (right). The 34-year-old outfielder has been hurt each of the past two seasons, so he hasn’t hit more than 10 home runs since he hit 27 back in 2008. However, he seems to be back to 2006 offensively, batting .295/.387/.590, for an OPS+ of 170 (which would be a career high). His home run % is at 5.6, well above his career 4.0 average, though in a relatively small sample size of only 142 PAs this season. He is hitting at a .54 GB/FB ratio, which is well below his .77 career average, but last night that was a good thing. Willie Harris benefited as well—he was on base every time Beltran cranked one out. The Mets are still looking for another offensive player to really break out, as Beltran is only going to last so much longer on his knees. A final All-Star appearance could be on the horizon, though, if Carlos keeps swinging his bat the way he is.

Honorable Mention

Zach Britton/Jason Vargas: Baltimore 2, Seattle 1 
After Beltran hit his three home runs earlier in the day, I figured that there was no way he could be topped. However, Zach Britton and Jason Vargas came close to putting up some pretty rare numbers: that is, they both had a chance to pitch into the 10th inning. After a full nine in Baltimore, the score was 0-0, and both starters were still going strong. Britton (5-2, 2.42 ERA) and Vargas (2-2, 3.86 ERA) have both had solid seasons, but the opportunity to go 10 innings is a rare one. It was within reason, too--both pitchers had retired the last six batters they'd faced, including 1-2-3 innings in each part of the 9th. Neither of them had thrown more than 108 pitches, and Britton had only given up three hits--his only three baserunners. Still, they both get quality starts with no decision to show for it, and the fact they each only went the normal nine innings keeps them below the three home run performance of Beltran.

Peformance Enhancer Detector: The Baltimore Orioles

The graph below acts as a detector for Performance Enhancing Drug (PED) users.  The subsequent graphs show an obvious user in Rafael Palmiero; somebody who might have been using steroids in Cal Ripken; and a normal career curve for comparison--the great Frank Robinson. We'll start with the chart showing the top 10% and the bottom 10% for adjusted career OPS+ only:

A great way to detect an abnormal career progression; the graph uses OPS+ as a proxy to measure overall batting skill.  Relative OPS+ is measured by comparing 5-year periods of a player's career.  For instance, when 32 is seen on the age axis it represents the player's performance from age 28 through age 32, and age 33 represents ages 29 through 33 and so on.  The "relative" part is introduced when all of the player's other five-year periods are indexed to the player's best five-year period.  The best 5-year period is set to equal 100 and the rest of the 5-year periods are measured accordingly.  The chart above  displays the career progression in which 80% of players fit.  A couple of things to remember when viewing the chart is that the area between the 10% lines is 80% of all players measured. Additionally, the player's performance is compared to himself, so if Player A has an 85 rating at age 32 and Player B has an 89 rating at the same age, that does not necessarily mean that Player  B was a better player; it just means Player B closer to his peak than Player A. Hit the jump to see the individual player charts.

Rotation Rankings: Week 6

Previous Rankings: Week 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5

Week six of our Rotation Rankings: the statistical ranking of every rotation in Major League Baseball. More a fan of offense? Check out our Leadoff Rankings, based on every teams' first and second batters.This week, we're bringing out something new: a normalized formula. For the last few weeks, we've been basically eyeballing the stats, using our knowledge of the teams as well as the numbers to try and place each time in a slot that made the most sense based on season performance, while keeping in mind how the last week went for each team. Now, however, we have a formula--using WHIP, ERA, and some other statistics, we've compared them all to league averages to come up with normalized scores, which we've then set to a ratio according to importance (WHIP being more important than K/9, for example), which gives us a final, weighted, relative score. The season stats get weighted towards 90% of the total, while the last week's statistics account for the last 10% (allowing some fluctuation based on recent performance, which is really what most Power Rankings do without realizing it). To see how much movement there was when we switched to the formula (as well as how your favorite team stacks up), hit the jump!

The AL West At a Glance

The entire landscape of the AL West has changed in recent years as the competition seems to be growing with arms. Last season, the Texas Rangers dethroned the Los Angeles Angels' run of three straight division titles and even went on to the World Series. The AL  West might be the most competitive division in baseball at the moment

Dan Haren (L) and Jered Weaver
anchor one of baseball's best rotations

with just four games separating four teams. Thus far, the Angels' rotation, led by Dan Haren and Jered Weaver (left) has them rolling to an early lead at 20-15. The Rangers and Oakland Athletics follow at 18-17 while the Seattle Mariners again sit in last at 16-19. This pitching-heavy division is tight right now and is largely up for grabs. Though often overshadowed by the AL East, the West remains competitive for a four team division and has produced as many World Series appearances than the Central over the past 10 years. For the Angels, they added outfielder Vernon Wells via trade from Toronto this winter, then extended his contract for $126 million over seven years. Wells has yet to prove his worth as he has struggled mightily, sitting at around .179.  If or when Wells and Torii Hunter start hitting, it could be a fun summer in Los Angeles. Here is a far more in-depth look at the AL West and where it is heading.

Leadoff Rankings: Week 6

Previous Rankings: Week 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5

The sixth weekend of the 2011 season has come and gone, and the Leadoff Rankings are starting to settle out. The division leaders are all in the top-10 (along with two last-place teams), while the bottom 10 is filled with truly offensively challenged clubs. More a fan of pitching? Check out our Rotation Rankings, published every Thursday, where we rank each team by the performance of their starting pitchers. The rankings are based on season performance, with a small bias towards recent performance. The stats come from each team's first and second batters every game, regardless of the name on the back of the jersey. To see how things turned out this week, hit the jump!

Rotation Rankings: Week 5

Previous Rankings: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4

Week five of our Rotation Rankings: the statistical ranking of every rotation in Major League Baseball. For a better explanation, check out our debut rankings. More a fan of offense? Check out our Leadoff Rankings, based on every teams' first and second batters. As we get further into the season, these rankings are based mostly on season performance, with a bias towards this week's performance when two teams are comparable. To see which teams were the real movers and shakers this week, hit the jump!

Bad Wins and Good Losses

As someone who uses statistics often in my sports discussions, there are certain stats that I just can not stand. In baseball, my favorite to rag against is wins and losses. It's unfortunate that the concept of winning and losing is so central to sports, because there is almost no stat in baseball that is more useless than wins and losses. I'd much rather know a pitcher's WHIP, ERA, K/BB ratio, strike percentage, Wins above Replacement (WAR), and a number of other statistics before I even approached the wins and losses. However, the part of me that is a closed-minded baseball fan understands the need for wins and losses--if a pitcher has a great game, there should be some sort of "award" given, and that award is usually a win. If a pitcher goes out and can't find the strike zone except to serve up easy home runs for the opponent, then he deserves a mark of shame--also known as a loss. However, sometimes that doesn't happen--close leads are blown, and high-scoring games happen. So, I decided we're going to keep a new list: Good Losses, and Bad Wins. I know this isn't a new concept, but as the season goes on and the lists go longer we'll see if certain teams are more likely to screw their starters over...or rescue them from an L in the box score. To see the results so far, hit the jump!

What's Going on in the AL Central?

Sizemore's return has been a 
huge spark for the 19-8 Indians

Back in the mid-2000s, the American League Central seemed like a pretty hot division. The Twins were fresh off three straight playoff appearances, behind the amazing arm of Johan Santana and the bat of Torii Hunter. The White Sox won 90+ games in 2005 and 2006, including a World Series title in '05. The Tigers won only 71 games in '05 by made the World Series in '06, while the Indians won 90+ games in '05 and '07, making it to the ALCS in 2007. Lately, however, the AL Central has taken a backseat to the power race in the American League East and the amazing pitching staffs out in the AL West--the division-winning Twins got swept out of the playoffs the last two seasons, and no AL Central team has won a playoff series since those 2007 Indians. This year, more of the same was expected--the Royals were a year or two away from contending, the Indians were an unknown quantity with Grady Sizemore (see right) returning from injury, while the Twins were expected to win the division behind the arm of Francisco Liriano and the bats of Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer. However, a month into the season, the standings are straight out of the Twilight Zone: the Indians have the best record in baseball at 19-8, followed by the Royals at 15-13. Behind Kansas City is Detroit (12-17), Chicago (11-19), and the Twins (9-18). Let's take a look at each team and see why they are where they are, and if they can keep it up.

Leadoff Rankings: Week 5

Previous Rankings: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4

The fifth weekend of the 2011 season has come and gone, and the Leadoff Rankings are starting to settle out. More a fan of pitching? Check out our Rotation Rankings, published every Thursday, where we rank each team by the performance of their starting pitchers. The rankings are based on season performance, with a small bias towards recent performance. The stats come from each team's first and second batters every game, regardless of the name on the back of the jersey. To see how things turned out this week, hit the jump!

Rotation Rankings: Week 4

Previous Rankings: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3

Week four of our Rotation Rankings: the statistical ranking of every rotation in Major League Baseball. For a better explanation, check out our debut rankings. More a fan of offense? Check out our Leadoff Rankings, based on every teams' first and second batters. As we get further into the season, these rankings are based mostly on season performance, with a small bias towards this week's performance when two teams were very comparable. There were some interesting ranking quirks this week, mostly because of fantastic weeks by some of the teams that had previously been lower in the rankings--something to be expected early in the season. A few teams actually improved on their season performances but managed to fall in the rankings, due solely to the fact that the teams behind them out performed them as well. Eventually these sort of things will even out, but after four weeks it's still easy enough for one great week to pull a team up 15 slots. To see which teams were the real movers and shakers this week, hit the jump!

Op-Ed: On Potential MLB Playoff Expansion

As American society continues to grow and change, we find our sports teams and leagues in a constant battle to adjust to the needs and wants of the public. At least, they say they do it for the fans, and in spirit of competition, though the driving force usually  seems to be green--and a  lot of it. When the NCAA  was looking to  potentially

Selig has been taking heat this week for both his
playoff talk and MLB's takeover of the Dodgers

expand to 96 teams, there weren't many people who really believed the 96th-best team in the country had a legitimate shot at winning a national championship--but an extra round of games would certainly bring in some extra TV revenue. So, when Major League Baseball commissioner Bud Selig (left) comes out and says that he's strongly considering a playoff expansion, does any baseball fan believe it's for any reason other than money? From what Selig has been saying, it sounds as if playoff expansion is not just being considered, but instead seems almost inevitable--as early as next season. For a league that was the slowest in terms of adding video replay (a full nine seasons after the NFL), and even then approved it for home run calls only, the idea of such a quick change coming seems to be unlike how Major League Baseball usually operates. I'm not saying there would not be any benefits to expansion--seeing more small-market clubs in the playoffs would be a good thing, and I'm sure any team in the AL East not named the "Yankees" or "Red Sox" would happily welcome a better shot at playoff baseball. However, the idea of baseball expanding their playoffs is, overall, a terrible one. So why is Selig doing this? Are there any other options? Hit the jump for more!