Post-Carmelo Nuggets: Are they Really Better Off?

Are the Nuggets really better off without Melo?

In the wake of the Knicks-Nuggets blockbuster sending Carmelo Anthony (see left) to the Big Apple, the media broke down the trade from several angles.  Some said the Knicks overpaid for Melo; other claimed that, no matter the price, New York had to pull the trigger.  Still others were content to be grateful that the "Melodrama" was over.  Few pundits or bloggers, though, actually assessed what the trade meant for the Nuggets.  Even Nuggets president Josh Kroenke decided to apologize for the trade rather than try to justify it to his fans.  Despite all this, the Nuggets have been prolific since the trade, compiling a 15-4 record since the trade (by comparison, the Knicks are now 10-12 even after a three-game winning streak). Denver even topped it all off with a road win against the red-hot Lakers on Sunday..  This impressive performance leads us to ask two inevitable questions.  Why are the Nuggets playing so well without Anthony?  And are they for real?  Hit the jump to find out.

The Big Bad Bruins Are Back

As the playoffs approach in every sport, fans consider which teams they would least like to face this postseason.  There are a few such teams in the NHL's Eastern Conference right now.  The Flyers have sat atop the standings for most of the season with their scoring depth, solid blue line, and strong duo in net.  The Capitals always threaten to break out with their fire power.  The Pittsburgh Penguins have more star players injured than most teams have at all, and yet they continue to win with strong team play.  But sitting in third place, with 99 points and having clinched their division, the Boston Bruins are beginning to look like the kind of physical and scrappy team you definitely don't want to play in the first round.  This is especially true for the Montreal Canadiens if they continue to cling to sixth place.

Take note, the Boston Bruins are
surging into the playoffs

In the recent meeting between Montreal and Boston, the Bruins scored a touchdown's worth of goals against the Habs, while Tim Thomas posted his eighth shutout of the season that night.  In the previous meeting, on March 8th, the Bruins lost to Montreal, but Boston captain Zdeno Chara's hit on Max Pacioretty left the latter with broken vertebrae, and led to the city of Montreal initiating a criminal investigation into Chara.  Chara was cleared by the league, and in March 24th's 7-0 victory, the Bruins made it clear that they can also channel their aggressive play into copious goal scoring. So why is Boston such a dangerous matchup? Let's take a look at the numbers...

Leadoff Rankings: Week 1 (Way-Too-Early Edition)

In any baseball lineup, there are two spots in the order that get more attention than any of the others--the number four, or cleanup, hitter, and the number one guy--the leadoff hitter. That leadoff guy is traditionally someone who gets on base rather often, and has the speed on the basepaths to put pressure on the defense as the heart of the order comes to the plate. As baseball players have gotten more athletic and more versatile, it's become common for more than one player to have leadoff-type qualities, and there are plenty of very talented number two hitters who do a great job of getting on base (Placido Polanco, Derek Jeter, Dustin Pedroia, Freddy Sanchez, etc). Every spot further down in the lineup costs a player about 20 at-bats over the course of a season--so, if the number one hitter bats 600 times, it's expected that the number three hitter would have 560 at-bats, the number five hitter would have 520 at-bats, and so forth. Let's assume a player bats .300 for a season--that amounts to a difference of six hits for every spot in the order he's dropped. So, what that all means is that a team with production at the top of the order should have an advantage over teams relying on more production from their fourth and fifth hitter.

With that in mind, we debut our first ever Leadoff Rankings: a statistical look at which teams are getting production from the first two spots in their lineup--regardless of who is playing. That is, we're not going to rank the teams based on talent level in their top two spots, but by their production instead. Obviously, that means these first rankings, after most teams have played just three games, are not exactly going to be representative of how these lineups will turn out, but neither are any Power Rankings at this point in the season. The list is slightly objective--there's no set formula to decide which team gets the highest ranking, but we look at number of factors. On-base-percentage is very important, as are steals and runs scored. RBIs are nice from the top of the lineup, but that can often be misleading, as American League squads are more likely to have production from the bottom of the lineup (leading to more RBIs for the guys batting first and second). However, it still comes down to all-around performance for these rankings. So, who had a great first weekend in terms of top-of-the-lineup production? Hit the jump to see how your team did!

Stat Line of the Day: April 4th

Matt Garza (CHC): 7.0 IP, 12 H, 3 ER (3 R), 0 walks, 12 strikeouts 

Garza had quite a start on Sunday, his first as a Cub

When we came up with the idea of having a Stat Line of the Day, this is exactly the kind of performance we were on the lookout for. This was Garza's first start as a member of the Chicago Cubs, and he had quite a puzzling performance against a talented young Pirates lineup. Giving up 12 hits is usually a recipe for disaster, but Garza had two things going in his favor--first, he didn't walk anybody (allowing for a fantastic ball-strike ratio of three-to-one), and second, all 12 hits were singles. In addition, Garza had another impressive stat in his line, getting those 12 strikeouts. If you want to find a way to pitch around baserunners in nearly every inning (the 4th was the only inning Garza retired the Pirates in order), the best way to do that is to ensure they don't even put the ball in play. Eight of those strikeouts were swinging, so it's clear that Garza was around the strike zone very often on Sunday. So what happens when you take 12 hits and 12 strikeouts in the same game? Well, fairly normal results actually--the three runs in seven innings come out to a very respectable 3.86 ERA, as well as a game score of 53. It seems like rather often it's not the hits that tend to get to a pitcher as much as it is the walks. By limiting his walks (to zero), Garza was able to concentrate on throwing strikes, getting around baserunners, and actually had the lead when he left after the seventh inning--if not for a 9th inning comeback, Garza would have started his Cubs career 1-0, even after all that.

Honorable Mentions

G. Hill (SAN): 26 min, 29 pts (10-16 FG, 4-7 3PT, 5-5 FT), 4 assists vs. Suns

When you have more points than minutes, that's usually a good sign. When you do it on 62.5% shooting, that's an even better sign. When it helps the Spurs win for first time in 7 games and stop their late-season free-fall, that's the best sign of all. Hill's Spurs were also +28 in the minutes he played (compare that with Tony Parker's -1 over the same amount of minutes in the same game).

J. Garcia (STL): 9.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 9 K's, 2 BB vs. Padres

No, the Padres don't have the greatest lineup in the world, especially after losing Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox, but a 2-hit shutout just three days into the season gets a spot for being impressive no matter who you're facing. All four hits were singles, including one to Padres pitcher Dustin Moseley.

R. Hanigan (CIN): 4-4, 4 RBI, 3 R, 2 HR, 1 BB vs. Brewers
Sure it's only two games, but you can't really complain about an OPS (on-base plus slugging %) of 2.321--just slighty above the 31-year-old catcher's career OPS of .772.

Stat Line of the Day: April 3rd

D. Rose (CHI): 36 points (11-20 FG, 13-14 FT), 10 assists, 3 blocks vs. Raptors

Earlier this month, we did a post analyzing the top point guards in the NBA, and Derrick Rose came out in 3rd place.  In that post, we rated each point guard on six statistical categories: points, assists, field goal percentage, turnovers, steals, and team winning percentage.  Last night, Rose (see right) was remarkable in four of those six categories, posting a game-high 36 points and shooting 55% from the floor.  He also exceeded his season average with 10 assists and, most importantly, he led the Bulls to a close win over the Raptors.  The three blocks, for a point guard, are pretty impressive as well, showing that Rose played a compete game on the defensive end.  Finally, Rose sealed the game by hitting a pair of free throws in the final seconds, capping off a night of 93% free throw shooting.  A great all-around game for the Bulls' young PG, leading his team to victory and a stronger hold on the top spot in the East.

Honorable Mentions:

S. Choo (CLE): 0-4, 4 K's vs. White Sox

Well, this was a pretty terrible day for the Indians' right fielder, Shin-Soo Choo.  Choo, a .300 hitter in each of the last three seasons, managed to earn the "golden sombrero" for his ineptitude on Saturday afternoon.  Striking out four times in four at-bats made for a day that I'm sure Choo will want to forget.  Not only did he fail to put the ball in play the entire game, but his individual at-bats were utterly pathetic.  He needed only nine pitches to strike out the final three times (twice swinging, once looking), and his first strike out took a whopping four pitches.  For those of you doing the math, that's 13 pitches and four strike outs.  For a guy like Choo, who posted an average line of .300-21-88 over the past two seasons, this has gotta be one of his most disheartening games in quite awhile.

F. Sanchez (SF): 3-4, 2 R, 3 RBI, 1 HR, 1 2B, 1 BB vs. Dodgers

The best all-around offensive performance in the MLB yesterday came from Giants second baseman Freddy Sanchez, leading to his team's slaughter of the Dodgers.  A former National League batting champion, Sanchez got his season off to a hot start with three hits for seven total bases, including a home run.  He helped the Giants take control of the game in the fifth inning, doubling in a run and then scoring on a subsequent single to take a 4-0 lead.  He also hit a 400-foot home run in the eighth inning, a good sign for Sanchez.  He has never been a power-hitter before, the most glaring weakness in his game: a .299 career batting average, and 38 doubles/season--but only 45 career home runs--before last night.  Though it was only one game and only one home run, Giants fans have to be excited to see their second baseman finally hitting with some pop.

What's Wrong with the Spurs?

On Christmas Day, the Spurs were 25-4.  By the end of January, their winning percentage had dipped, and their record stood at only 40-7.  By the first day of spring, the Spurs had fallen even further, giving them a 57-13 record.  Even with the Spurs clearly not living up to the standard they set in their first 30 games, they still had the best record in the Western Conference and the NBA.  To that point, San Antonio had more 11-game winning streaks (two) than 2-game losing streaks (one).  Since then, though, it's all gone south.  The Spurs are currently in the middle of a six-game losing streak, and the surging Lakers are now only one game back in the loss column.  In the midst of the first 5+ game losing streak in the Tim Duncan (see above) era, the Spurs aren't panicking.  But should they be?  Hit the jump to find out.

Stat Line(s) of the Day: April 2nd

We had a few really good nights last night, and a few particularly atrocious ones. So we picked one of each to spotlight, plus a few other good lines down below.

Andray Blatche (WAS): 36 points, 19 rebounds (16 offensive), 4 assists vs. Cavaliers

Blatche, 24, is having a career year

The record for offensive rebounds in one game is 21, set by Moses Malone back in 1982, but that's not to say that Andray Blatche had a bad game...on the contrary. Blatche went off on the Cavs, tying a career-high with his 36 points and setting a franchise record with those 16 offensive rebounds. Those boards helped the Wizards to a 56-38 rebounding differential, leading to the Wizards taking 12 more shots than the Cavs (and making eight more), leading to a Wizards eight-point victory. The 24-year-old center is in the midst of his best season ever, averaging 16.2 points and 8.1 rebounds in 34 minutes per game, starting 56, for the Washington Wizards. Blatche was originally a 2005 draft pick out of high school, and has taken a few years to develop--it took Blatche until his fourth season to average double-digits in points, but his PER (player efficiency rating) is up near 17, which is very very solid. To give you an idea, it puts Blatche as the 57th-best offensive player in the game. Not a first option by any means, but he's rated above players such as Chauncey Billups, Jrue Holiday, and Andrea Bargnani--not really bad company either. 

Fausto Carmona (CLE): 3 IP, 11 H, 10 R (10 ER), 2 HR vs. White Sox

Well, I don't think Fausto Carmona wanted to start the season off with an ERA of 30.00, but that's just what he did yesterday against the White Sox.  Giving up six runs in the first three innings was bad enough, including two home runs in the 3rd to Carlos Quentin and new White Sox slugger Adam Dunn.  But then, it took the first four batters to reach base in the 4th inning (single, walk, single, double) for manager Manny Acta to finally (and mercifully) pull the plug on Carmona's day. He was relieved by the equally effective Justin Germano, who promptly hit Paul Konerko before  (after getting one out) allowing a double, a single, and two more doubles. Chicago managed to battle back from a 14-0 deficit for a somewhat respectable, though quite deceiving, 15-10 loss.

Honorable Mentions:
J.P. Arencibia (TOR): 3-for-4, 2 home runs, 1 triple, 5 RBIs vs. Twins
J. Crawford (WAS): 21 points, 10 rebounds, 11 assists, 2 blocks vs. Cavs
P. Elias (NJD): 3 G, 4 SOG, 15:51 TOI vs PHI

NBA Playoff Picture: Eastern Conference 8th Seed

Brown was fired just 28 games into the season

When it comes to making the playoffs, the NBA is a much more inclusive league than, say, Major League Baseball.  While only eight of 30 baseball teams make the playoffs each year, 16 of 30 in the Association are given the privilege of attempting a run at the championship.  Though the 8th seed has  never won it all (and has only once made it to the Finals--the 99-00 Knicks), the battle for that last playoff spot is often just as fierce as the battle for the top spot. Though the eighth seed is almost guaranteed to lose to the one-seed, a playoff appearance is a big boost for coaches and general managers looking to claim progress for their squad.  This year, the Charlotte Bobcats and Indiana Pacers are in a dog-fight for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.  The Pacers finished nine games out of the playoffs last season, and Bobcats coach Larry Brown (see right) resigned/was fired 28 games into the year, leaving both teams in need of some good news.  As April 2011 beginnings, they're both in the hunt for the playoffs, with only one game separating the two.  Which team will make the playoffs--Pacers or Bobcats?  Hit the jump to find out.

Final Four Preview

Shaka Smart guided the Rams to their first Final Four

If you picked the Final Four correctly, it means one of three things: a) you pick your bracket based on flipping a coin, b) you know absolutely nothing about college basketball and made your picks at random, or c) you are a crazy fan of either Butler or Virginia Commonwealth. Beyond that, no college basketball "expert" should have any more than one of these four teams remaining, much less the three or four we all hope for. A week ago, even after the loss of Pittsburgh in the round of 32, most of the tournament favorites were alive and playing well--now, with just three games remaining, we're left with a 1-or-2-seed for the first time in tournament history. Duke, Ohio State, Kansas, Florida, North Carolina...all went down before the Final Four, something that seemed a ridiculous notion just a few days ago. Kind of makes you wonder what would happen if college football teams were allowed to have a playoff...but that's a different article entirely. So, it's left to Butler, Virginia Commonwealth, Connecticut, and Kentucky to battle it out for the national championship. How did these four get here, and how do their chances look? To see what the numbers say, hit the jump!

Stat Line of the Day: April 1st

Ramon Hernandez (CIN): 4-for-5, 3 RBIs, HR vs. MIL

Hernandez and the Reds walked off on Opening Day

Is Cincinnati headed for the playoffs this season? Probably not--but that's the beauty of the beginning of baseball season. Every game has equal weight, every team's got a shot, like San Diego last year, and getting off to a hot start can do wonders for a team's confidence and continued ability level. Edinson Volquez needs to pitch better than he did yesterday (six innings, seven hits, five earned runs), and rookie Aroldis Chapman would need to make an impact (along with a few other young-ish players who still need to improve) but it's about getting off to that good start and trying to maintain some sort of momentum. Ramon Hernandez was the hero on Day One of the season, taking an 0-1 fastball over the right field fence with two on and two out to deliver a 7-6 victory to the home crowd. It capped a solid day for Hernandez, who singled in the second, sixth, and eighth innings. Hernandez actually took advantage of his second big plate opportunity of the day--in the third inning, he flew out to center with the bases loaded and two outs. Milwaukee had taken a 6-3 lead into the bottom of the ninth, helped by back-to-back homers leading off the season by Rickie Weeks and Carlos Gomez, and it took a nearly-35-year-old catcher with 149 career home runs in 5122 plate appearances over 12 seasons to send Reds fans home happy on day one--not to mention in first place.

Honorable Mentions

Chris Mason (ATL): 0 GA, 43 Saves, 1.000 SV% vs. PHI

Our second shutout in as many days, Mason's first of the year comes against a much more impressive Flyers attack than the Rangers, who got shut out last night. Mason stopped 43 Flyers shots--amazingly, that's the third time this season the Flyers have been shutout when taking 40+ shots (Carey Price stopped 41 shots for the Canadiens back in November and Tim Thomas stopped that many a month later for Boston). This was Mason's first shutout of the year, though he does have 21 career shutouts in 283 games in net, so this was a performance overdue by quite a few games this season--he's had at least two in every season since 2005. The Flyers, as balanced an offense as they have, with seven players at 19 or more goals, have been shut out seven times this season--seven more times than they've managed to do to opposing teams. Atlanta needs to win their remaining games and have quite a few things go right to make the playoffs, but this was a good way to start off with a huge win on the road.

Rajon Rondo (BOS): 22 points, 14 assists, 5 rebounds vs. SA
Talk about a player picking it up when his team needs him the most. Clinging to a second place in the Eastern Conference, just a half-game up on the Heat, the Celtics were playing in San Antonio against a Spurs team who'd already dropped four games in a row. To be fair, the Spurs had been battling some injury problems, but Tim Duncan and Tony Parker both started and played 30+ minutes for the Spurs. Rondo was on when the Celtics needed it, the leading scorer on a team with three who got 20+ (Garnett and Pierce had 20 and 21), and his 14 assists are obviously huge--especially when you add in the fact that Rondo didn't turn it over once. If the Celtics are gonna hold off the Heat for the second place slot (and a likely matchup with the struggling Knicks), they'll need Rondo to put up those kind of numbers over their last eight games.